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Okay, I knew Cutler was most likely going to be traded.. But I thought that, as incompetent as they apparently are, the front office would at least do better than this. We get the 19th overall pick this year to go with our #12 pick, plus a third rounder {Somewhere in the eighties I believe} then another first rounder next year. Not bad, we get three picks out of it. But we decimated the offense in the process!

Assuming that we use those extra draft choices to fix a terrible defense, what are we going to do about the offense? If we draft a QB, then why'd we even bother acquiring Orton? And if we aren't going to draft one, what exactly do they think Orton or Chris Simms is going to do to make the offense click? Simms couldn't even beat out Vince Young, so I'll pretend that he is out of the running. I certainly don't want to see him as the starter! That leaves us to compare Kyle Orton and Jay Cutler:

Cutler was Favre-esque in his propensity for turning the ball over. Guess what though, Orton is no improvement. 25 TDs and 18 INTs for Jay, 18 TDs and 12 INTs for Kyle. Orton's ratio was slightly better at approximately 1 pick for every 1.5 touchdown passes compared to about 1 per 1.4 TDs. But that's not all, Orton could also be like Sage Rosenfels and fumble the ball away. 47 yards and 3 rushing TDs, but 5 out of his 6 fumbles were recovered by the opponent. Jay had 200 yards rushing with 5 fumbles, however, only 2 of them were officially turnovers. Some would say it should be 3, but that is beside the point in this particular argument. The fact of the matter is that Jay can rack up a bunch more yardage than Orton while still having about the same turnover numbers. Orton had 2,972 passing yards in 15 games {198.1 per game} and Jay had 4,526 in 16 games {283.9 a game}. Plus Jay had a 3.5 yards per carry rushing average to only 2.0 YPC for Orton. Cutler was a 62.3% passer, Orton was only 58.5%. Cutler averaged 11.8 yards per completion, Orton almost an entire yard back at 10.9 per completion. For those of you wondering, Cutler also had a better yards per pass play average. Jay got sacked 11 times to 27 for Kyle. Say what you want about the offensive lines, but a QB has to be able to avoid sacks if a guy gets through.

The one category where Orton has the edge is wins. He was 9-6 last year while Jay was 8-8. So maybe I'll be proved wrong and Kyle will turn out to be a much better QB than I give him credit for. But I'm not holding my breath on that..

And now we move on to the AFC...

AFC SOUTH
Indianapolis Colts 12-4
The Colts appear to be perilously close to letting go of their death-grip on the AFC South, but as long as Peyton Manning is healthy, I think they'll manage to hang on for at least one more year. Marvin Harrison is banged up, but not necessarily done. However, it's obvious that he is no longer the top dog in Indy with Reggie Wayne moving to the #1 WR spot.. And Anthony Gonzalez waiting in the wings should Marvin struggle. Jeff Saturday's absence will hurt their chances, but I think they'll still hit the 12-win mark plateau again.

{12-4} Well, they finished with the right record, but couldn't hold onto the division crown. However, they did a pretty good job overall during the regular season.. But their woes against San Diego continued with a first round exit in the Playoffs.



Jacksonville Jaguars 11-5
Similar to Minnesota in the fact that their ground game is the focal point of the offense, but different in that David Garrard actually counts as an NFL QB. The tandem of Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor should be productive; as long as Taylor doesn't encounter any legal issues. They brought in Jerry Porter to help the passing game, but I'm not so sure that that will help Garrard's stats. Especially in a run-heavy offense. As long as the 'D' doesn't suffer a major collapse, they should challenge for the division crown.

{5-11} Ouch. From being considered a threat to win the division to finishing #4 in the AFC South. The defense wasn't on par with the Mike Smith squads of recent years {Smith left for Atlanta last off-season} and the running game was a mess for most of the season. And let's just say that Jerry Porter was NOT the answer to their passing issues.



Houston Texans 7-9
Perhaps they could turn out to be a dark-horse team this season. But with questions at Running Back, they don't have what it takes to move into the second spot in the division. The passing attack should be lively, but with injuries mounting in the backfield, I wouldn't want to have to rely on the rookie Slaton to carry the load all year. Then again, they have a solid front seven, so perhaps the RB situation will turn out to be less of an issue than feared.

{8-8} Turns out Slaton isn't so bad after all. He rushed for 1,282 yards and 9 TDs as well as making 50 grabs for 377 yards. Of course, the season was marred by an injury to Matt Schaub and the ensuing gaffe-fest that was Sage Rosenfels at the helm. The defense was okay, but nothing spectacular.



Tennessee Titans 5-11
Alge Crumpler is the new Tight End, and he had some good success with Michael Vick in Atlanta a few years back. However, Vince Young continues to fail to live up to even the lowest expectations. Chris Johnson could provide some fireworks, but with little else on offense to be excited about, Johnson might end up being the best the Tennessee offense has to offer.

{13-3} Johnson certainly provided some fireworks. He and LenDale White ran all over opponents all year long. That along with a stellar defense and Kerry Collins taking over at QB helped propel the Titans to the #1 seed in the AFC. Still, their narrow loss to Baltimore has to sting. Continue reading "For Fun, A Rundown Of My NFL Predictions {Part 2}"

Now that the Steelers and Cardinals have wrapped up the official NFL season {That is, unless you count the Pro Bowl for some unfathomable reason}, here's a quick review of my preseason picks, with the actual records in brackets. I'll split it into two entries, one for each conference:

NFC EAST
Dallas Cowboys 14-2
This could vary slightly depending on how much their starters take off at the end of the year. But with that schedule (The Steelers and maybe the Browns are the only real challenges), I don't see Dallas posting anything less than 13 wins.

{9-7} Wow, was this one off by a mile. From Tony Romo's month-long vacation due to a pinkie injury to the unsightly loss to Philly in Week 17, the Cowboys had a rough year. 9-7 isn't terrible, but you would think a team with a decent defense, Marion Barber, Terrell Owens and Roy Williams #2 could manage at least 10 wins..


New York Giants 10-6
The Giants are the defending Super Bowl Champs. But with Strahan and Umenyiora MIA, they'll have a lot of difficulty even sniffing another NFC Championship. That's not to say they won't be a threat though. Eli Manning finally did some good at the end of the season last year, and Brandon Jacobs is still there to barrel through the line. But with a banged up defense (Hey Giants fans, tell me if you've heard that one before) and a questionable wideout situation, I just don't think they'll be an actual force to be reckoned with.

{12-4} Actually, this was a pretty good assessment. The defense was good, but it had its fair share of problems. Eli was a middle-of-the-pack QB, failing to live up to the undue preseason claims that he had reached a new level. The running back trio and the O-Line were outstanding, but the WRs were okay at best.


Philadelphia Eagles 8-8
They went on a 3-game winning streak to finish out the season last year, so they should have some confidence to start out. However, they have an extremely fragile offense. LJ Smith is coming off several injuries, Kevin Curtis is out for a while, Reggie Brown is questionable for Week 1, but it's no guarantee he does anything once on the field. The main issue here though, is Donovan McNabb. The odds are against him making it all the way to Week 17, so it would be up to second year man Kevin Kolb to carry the team. He's done fine in the preseason, but what will he do in a real game? They could surprise and return to their form from a few years ago, but I doubt it. Most likely, injuries will drag them down.

{9-6-1} The Eagles learned two valuable lessons this season. Number one is that you are able to end a game in a tie. Number two is that they still aren't good enough to win it all. To their credit though, they made some waves this year. My prediction of McNabb going down proved to be false, and the defense was great as usual, allowing them to reach the NFC title game.


Washington Redskins 6-10
They started the preseason looking great. Then they morphed into the team I was expecting. Clinton Portis and Chris Cooley are the only real weapons on the team, so they'll have to rely on defense. Hate to be so brief, but that seems to pretty much sum the Skins up.

{8-8} Clinton Portis did his part, but the rest of the team was nothing to boast about. They did exceed expectations though.. And if not for that loss to the Rams, maybe they could have even been in the Playoff picture.
Continue reading "For Fun, A Rundown of My NFL Predictions"